Trend Forecasting Stage One – The Past

In earlier posts I’ve given a general Introduction to Trend Forecasting (TF).  Now it’s time to get down to the nitty-gritty!

Stage One of our forecasting process is to review the trends from the 2 previous seasons: The immediately previous season & the previous corresponding season.  For example, at the moment we are working on our Autumn / Winter 2010 / 11 forecast.  Our starting point was to review our forecasts for Spring / Summer 2010 and Autumn / Winter 09 / 10.  You will notice that even though we refer to these as previous or past seasons they are in fact future dates.

The TF process is a bit like driving to somewhere you haven’t been before.  The best thing to do before setting off is to programme your Sat-Nav.  The Sat-Nav’s directions will be based on where you are starting out from.  This is the starting point for the journey.  It is essential to know where you are starting from in order to get to where you want to be.  It’s the same with forecasting trends.  In order to arrive at the correct destination (an accurate forecast) we need to be clear on where we are moving forward from.  Now for us, as a forecasting company, this isn’t an issue because we have our past forecasts to refer to.  But if you haven’t invested time in TF before then you won’t have anything to actually review!  Therefore it makes sense to do 1 or 2 of the following:

• Subscribe to a trend journal or a few trend journals.  Even if they are focussed on Fashion rather than Interiors, it’s a low cost way to get access to coverage and comment on past seasons colours etc…  www.modeinfo.com have a great selection of trend journals and magazines (press the ‘English’ button to translate from German).
• Attend Trend Seminars at trade shows.  Many TF companies present Free seminars at industry events and often they will focus their presentation on trends from the previous rather than current season (or they will include a review of the previous season before moving onto discussing the current season) which can be a valuable starting point for the season you are trying to forecast.
• Get Googling!  Maybe that’s how you came across this Blog.  Google the season previous to the one you are trying to forecast.  Once TF companies have moved onto the next season they tend to be less protective about their last forecast.  So it should be pretty easy to find free snippets of trend reports, colour palettes and trend boards being passed around websites and blogs.
• Of course you can also purchase past reports from us at discounted prices.  Just email designteam@scarletopus.com to enquire about a super-special blog readers rate!

The point of all this information gathering is to try to establish which trends will move forward and which trends won’t.  When we have identified which of the trends still have momentum we can begin to look at forecasting shifts in these trends e.g in recent seasons we have seen a resurgent interest in Blues particularly Indigo.  This trend has been reinforced by Art Gallery and Museum exhibitions and increasing environmental focus on concerns relating to Water including Expo Zaragoza last year.  But now we have to decide how this trend will shift.

Tracking and Predicting shifts is the essence of TF for the Interiors sector.  In Fashion forecasting things move a little faster, there are more Micro trends (quick In & Out trends) and often the individual product prices are lower so people are more willing to replace products more often.  For Interior trends we focus on Macro trends (large & longlasting trends) that gradually shift in direction depending on Current issues, Unexpected issues & events over the past year and Planned events and Known issues over the coming couple of years (I’ll discuss the importance of Current, Unexpected & Future issues in detail in the next 3 Process postings). 

All trends can be tracked over time and previous shifts give an indication of future shifts.  At Scarlet Opus we refer to a ‘trend pendulum’.  Basically meaning that a trend can only swing so far in one direction before it inevitably swings in the opposite direction.  In Fashion you can clearly see this pendulum in action in denim trends – dark indigo denim is ‘In’ and eventually then it swings back the other way to light denim shades.  In Interiors we have seen recent swings from lots of pattern back towards more austere and sober styling etc…

Interior trends generally tend to shift over longer periods.  This is for several reasons……..

Some Interior products are not easily changed e.g. tiles and therefore other products need to compliment the products which remain in-place for many seasons.  You can’t expect people to gut their homes, hotels etc… every season and redecorate and buy all new products.

The cost of an Interior product can be relatively high compared to a piece of apparell, therefore these products are seen as less disposable (thankfully) than fast Fashion items.

So people are generally looking to purchase products at any given time that compliment their existing room schemes or update their existing room schemes.  Transeasonality is very important.  However, as Designers, Manufacturers and Retailers we need consumers to keep consuming.  To keep purchasing new items.  TF has been built on a business model that requires us to encourage people to buy more and more stuff that they don’t really need and to replace products before they really need replacing.  This is the questionable promotion of Newness and the Disposibility of Everything!  But moving forward it is our ethical and environmental responsibility to design, manufacture and sell products with consideration for a products cradle-to-cradle lifecycle, to strive for better Green credentials, to experiment with forms of Up-cycling, to invest a product with qualities that allow it to actually improve with age, to only create things that are needed or wanted, to give consideration to a products Legacy, to design products that have meaning and have been lovingly & skillfully made and to cease manipulating a psuedo-desire for constant newness.  The pace of Trends needs to slow but we also need to keep making money.  It’s an interesting challenge but it’s a worthwhile balance to strike.

In our next Process posting I’ll look at Stage Two of our TF process: Future Events.